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Pre-Powell FI Snapshot

US
  • Treasuries trade mixed ahead of Powell, with the belly underperforming (5Y 2.2bp cheaper) and wings outperforming (2Y stands out 1.3bp richer).
  • 2s10s sit at -27.4bps, +3.2bp on the day off earlier highs of -26.3bps.
  • TYZ3 trades in the middle of the day’s range at 105-20, off new lows of 105-12. Support is seen at 105-01+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope), resistance at 106-15+ (Oct 18 high).
  • Pertinent Fed implied rates: just +2bp priced for the Nov FOMC, building to a cumulative +12.5bp of tightening to a terminal 5.46% in January.
  • It’s followed by 23bp of cuts to Jun’24 and 68bp of cuts to Dec’24 – the latter stood at 71bp after the Fed’s dot plot on Sep 20.
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