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Preliminary Q4 GDP Data Scheduled Tuesday

MEXICO
  • With Banxico’s first meeting of the year not until February 08, the focus on the domestic calendar this week is tomorrow’s preliminary release of Q4 GDP. Data is expected to show growth cooling in the final quarter of last year to 0.4% Q/q, bringing the annual reading down to 3.0% from 3.3% previously. JPMorgan noted that there are only a few December activity indicators out already, most of them soft data, but they generally point to a pickup in momentum going into this year.
  • While the majority of analysts continue to expect a resilient Mexican peso, markets have started to consider the risks posed by both elections in the Mexico and the US. As such, the second half of January has seen USDMXN consolidating moderate gains above the 17.00 handle. 17.05 and 17.56 remain the short-term technical parameters to be aware of as we approach the FOMC meeting this week.
  • In other news, US regulators tentatively denied the review of a joint venture between Delta Air Lines Inc. and Grupo Aeromexico SAB because of a dispute over Mexico’s aviation rules. - BBG

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