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President Petro Criticises Constitutional Court, December Data Due

COLOMBIA
  • Monthly data for December will be published at 1500GMT(1000ET) today, with IP, retail sales and trade set to remain weak. IP is expected to fall by 2.1% y/y (vs. -3.0% prior), while retail sales decline by 2.3% y/y (vs. -3.4% prior). The trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to $505mn. Meanwhile, IMF staff are set to hold a press conference at BanRep led by country mission chief Ceyda Oner (2100GMT/1600ET).
    • Dec. Manufacturing Production YoY, est. -5.3%, prior -6.4%
    • Dec. Trade Balance, est. -$505m, prior -$762.1m
    • Dec. Retail Sales YoY, est. -2.3%, prior -3.4%
  • In other news, President Petro criticised the country’s Constitutional Court yesterday, after a number of rulings that threw out some of his key initiatives. In particular, he highlighted a ruling on oil company royalties that cost the government millions of dollars.
  • With focus on the government’s fiscal position growing, Barclays have downgraded Colombian sovereign bonds and those of state oil company Ecopetrol to market weight from overweight, given what they believe is an unambitious 5.3% of GDP fiscal deficit target this year. They note that the fiscal rule is proving to be extremely flexible, giving the government a larger amount of discretion, but generating greater uncertainty.
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