Presidential Election Kicks Off Shortly, Pavel Remains Betting Market's Favourite

Former army general Petr Pavel cemented his position as the frontrunner in the Czech presidential election, according to the latest update to a model by Mandaty.cz based on betting market pricing. The dust is settling after a key TV debate with the three leading contenders last night, with the polling stations set to open at 14:00CET/13:00GMT.

• None of the eight candidates is expected to garner the simple majority of votes needed to win in the first round, which makes a runoff with the two best performers highly likely. The three leading contenders have been locked in a tight race in the recent weeks, which creates some uncertainty about who will advance to the second round.
• The three strongest candidates are former Prime Minister and billionaire politician Andrej Babis, retired army general and ex-senior NATO official Petr Pavel and economist and scholar Danuse Nerudova. The trio faced off in a key debate broadcast in TV Nova last night, the first one to involve Babis, who has generally avoided debates.
• Observers pointed out that Nerudova fared better than in her Wednesday debate with Pavel alone, taking an assertive stance against Babis, including on his advocacy for lower interest rates despite elevated inflation. Pavel was described as passive and austere, seeking to bolster his image of a reliable leader.
• According to a Mandaty.cz model, betting markets price a 66% chance of Petr Pavel winning the presidential election, which puts him well ahead of Babis (26%) and Nerudova (6%). The publication of opinion polls was suspended earlier this week, as per local election law, which means we have no fresh snapshot of popular sentiment.
• The polling stations will close tomorrow at 14:00CET/13:00GMT and we should learn the results later on Saturday. If the base-case scenario of an inconclusive first round comes to fruition, the runoff will be held two weeks after.