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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Election analyst Nate Silver now considers the presidential race a “toss-up” following a polling surge for Vice President Kamala Harris after she took the presumptive Democratic Party nomination.
- According to data from the Silver’s 'Silver Bulletin', Harris is now ahead in the national polling average and slight favourite to win the election overall. Due to the Trump’s Electoral College advantage, Harris will likely need to beat Trump by 2-4% in the popular vote to win the election.
- Other key election forecasts, including 538, DDHQ/The Hill, and the Economist, have paused their models until Harris formally accepts the Democratic Party nomination and more polling becomes available.
- The New York Times notes in analysis of the Trump-Harris match-up: "As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground — but she still trails Trump in a head-to-head contest by more than Biden did before the [first Trump-Biden presidential] debate."
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: Silver Bulletin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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