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Presidential Race Swings Towards Trump Amid Concerning Polling For Biden

US

The 2024 presidential election race has swung towards former President Donald Trump amid new polling from the New York Times/Siena College which gave Trump a sizable lead over Biden in 5/6 key battleground states.

  • In addition, President Biden’s approval rating has slumped again - reversing a moderate recovery after his well-received State of the Union Address in March, according to the 538 tracker. Biden’s approval rating of 38.1% is significantly lower that the 40% benchmark which is considered a useful gauge of an incumbent president’s successful re-election.
  • For context, the RealClearPolitics tracker, which notes Biden at a firmer 39.5%, highlights the approval rating of previous presidents at the same time in their respective presidencies: “Approval May 14th (4th Year): Biden 39.5 | Trump 45.6 | Obama 48.3 | Bush 45.6.”
  • Axios reports that, “President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers — and neither do many of his closest advisers,” noting that Biden told donors last week: "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump."
  • For the first time since late March betting markets now see Trump as the favourite to win after an extended period where Trump and Biden were running in a dead heat. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 50% of winning - the highest implied probabilty Trump has recorded since entering the race.

Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating

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The 2024 presidential election race has swung towards former President Donald Trump amid new polling from the New York Times/Siena College which gave Trump a sizable lead over Biden in 5/6 key battleground states.

  • In addition, President Biden’s approval rating has slumped again - reversing a moderate recovery after his well-received State of the Union Address in March, according to the 538 tracker. Biden’s approval rating of 38.1% is significantly lower that the 40% benchmark which is considered a useful gauge of an incumbent president’s successful re-election.
  • For context, the RealClearPolitics tracker, which notes Biden at a firmer 39.5%, highlights the approval rating of previous presidents at the same time in their respective presidencies: “Approval May 14th (4th Year): Biden 39.5 | Trump 45.6 | Obama 48.3 | Bush 45.6.”
  • Axios reports that, “President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers — and neither do many of his closest advisers,” noting that Biden told donors last week: "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump."
  • For the first time since late March betting markets now see Trump as the favourite to win after an extended period where Trump and Biden were running in a dead heat. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 50% of winning - the highest implied probabilty Trump has recorded since entering the race.

Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating