Presidential Race Swings Towards Trump Amid Concerning Polling For Biden

The 2024 presidential election race has swung towards former President Donald Trump amid new polling from the New York Times/Siena College which gave Trump a sizable lead over Biden in 5/6 key battleground states.

• In addition, President Biden’s approval rating has slumped again - reversing a moderate recovery after his well-received State of the Union Address in March, according to the 538 tracker. Biden’s approval rating of 38.1% is significantly lower that the 40% benchmark which is considered a useful gauge of an incumbent president’s successful re-election.
• For context, the RealClearPolitics tracker, which notes Biden at a firmer 39.5%, highlights the approval rating of previous presidents at the same time in their respective presidencies: “Approval May 14th (4th Year): Biden 39.5 | Trump 45.6 | Obama 48.3 | Bush 45.6.”
• Axios reports that, “President Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers — and neither do many of his closest advisers,” noting that Biden told donors last week: "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump."
• For the first time since late March betting markets now see Trump as the favourite to win after an extended period where Trump and Biden were running in a dead heat. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 50% of winning - the highest implied probabilty Trump has recorded since entering the race.

Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating