Press Conference Transcript: FOMC Seems To Have Less Clarity Than Before

If you wanted assurances that the Fed would soon conclude its hiking cycle, or at least provide a big hint they were going to slow the pace of hikes in December, that press conference was the opposite.

• Powell started with decent clarity and resolve, but over the course of it it became increasingly apparent that even 375bp into the hiking cycle, the FOMC still has very little visibility over what they want to do at the next meeting, let alone where things will end up next year (and beyond).
• On several questions, from how to determine where the terminal rate is and what will happen at that point ("what's the level we need to get rates. don't know what we'll do when we get there, first thing is to find your way there") , to whether there will be a recession (or how bad it would be), to how to assess the lags of restrictive policy on financial conditions/ the economy ("we don't know that. I guess I would say it's highly uncertain.")
• No wonder implied rates are much higher and risk assets much weaker in the wake of Powell's comments.
• Here is the full press conference transcript - will will be publishing our full FOMC Review on Thursday as usual.