PRESS: Japan Coalition To Retain Majority with About 300 Seats

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's ruling coalition coalition led by Prime Minister

Shinzo Abe is expected to win about 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House

election on Oct. 22, retaining their majority, according to the latest

projections by newspapers based on their surveys published Thursday.

     The Yomiuri Shimbun said Abe's Liberal Democratic Party, which held 290

seats before the chamber was dissolved last month, is likely to secure well more

than the 233 seats required for a majority. 

     The Mainichi Shimbun said that the coalition between the LDP and its

smaller partner Komeito, which had a combined 325 seats, is forecast to win more

than 300 seats as the opposition camp remains fragmented due to disagreements

over national security and other key issues.

     The LDP's seats will slip to 289 from 290 while Komeito's will fall to 30

from 35, the paper said.

     Other newspapers also projected that the coalition will win about 300

seats.

     Prime Minister Abe has set a conservative target, saying he will stay in

power as long as the coalition retains a simple majority of 233.

     The Party of Hope, which was created last month by Tokyo Governor Yuriko

Koike, a former LDP lawmaker, is unlikely to threaten the ruling coalition's

dominance, newspapers said, forecasting the new conservative party will win 60

to 70 seats.

     Koike has promised to implement faster government reforms but voters are

not sure how different her policies would be from Abe's.

     There is little difference between the basic conservative political stances

of Abe, 63, and Koike, 65. They are both business-oriented with the aim of

shoring up economic growth and both seek a more assertive role by Japan by

rewriting the post-war Pacifist constitution.

     The main opposition Democratic Party has split. Some conservative DP

members joined Koike's party while liberal DP members launched a new party

called the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan led by Yukio Edano, a former

chief cabinet secretary when DP was in power.

     Edano's party is forecast to increase its presence in the Lower House from

16 to 33 seats, the Mainichi said.

     During the three years when it was in power at the national level until

losing to the LDP in late 2013, the Democratic Party failed to implement

growth-oriented structural reforms, instead placing too much focus on cutting

"wasteful" spending.

     It also alienated bureaucrats by making controversial political decisions

and mishandled some political issues, including how to reduce the large presence

of U.S. forces on the southern island of Okinawa, the site of fierce battles in

the closing days of World War II.

     The Democratic Party imploded amid political infighting and the ill-fated

decision by then prime minister Yoshihiko Noda to dissolve the Lower House and

call a snap election in late 2012, in which the party suffered a severe loss and

allowed the LDP and its leader Abe to return to power.

     If Abe stays in power, he is expected to continue his reflationary policy

mix of aggressive monetary easing, increased fiscal spending, and structural

reforms.

     In that case, the Bank of Japan will maintain its large-scale easing until

it achieves its 2% inflation target under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his

successor. Kuroda's five-year terms ends on April 8.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com

--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com

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