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Free AccessPRESS: Japan Coalition To Retain Majority with About 300 Seats
TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's ruling coalition coalition led by Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe is expected to win about 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House
election on Oct. 22, retaining their majority, according to the latest
projections by newspapers based on their surveys published Thursday.
The Yomiuri Shimbun said Abe's Liberal Democratic Party, which held 290
seats before the chamber was dissolved last month, is likely to secure well more
than the 233 seats required for a majority.
The Mainichi Shimbun said that the coalition between the LDP and its
smaller partner Komeito, which had a combined 325 seats, is forecast to win more
than 300 seats as the opposition camp remains fragmented due to disagreements
over national security and other key issues.
The LDP's seats will slip to 289 from 290 while Komeito's will fall to 30
from 35, the paper said.
Other newspapers also projected that the coalition will win about 300
seats.
Prime Minister Abe has set a conservative target, saying he will stay in
power as long as the coalition retains a simple majority of 233.
The Party of Hope, which was created last month by Tokyo Governor Yuriko
Koike, a former LDP lawmaker, is unlikely to threaten the ruling coalition's
dominance, newspapers said, forecasting the new conservative party will win 60
to 70 seats.
Koike has promised to implement faster government reforms but voters are
not sure how different her policies would be from Abe's.
There is little difference between the basic conservative political stances
of Abe, 63, and Koike, 65. They are both business-oriented with the aim of
shoring up economic growth and both seek a more assertive role by Japan by
rewriting the post-war Pacifist constitution.
The main opposition Democratic Party has split. Some conservative DP
members joined Koike's party while liberal DP members launched a new party
called the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan led by Yukio Edano, a former
chief cabinet secretary when DP was in power.
Edano's party is forecast to increase its presence in the Lower House from
16 to 33 seats, the Mainichi said.
During the three years when it was in power at the national level until
losing to the LDP in late 2013, the Democratic Party failed to implement
growth-oriented structural reforms, instead placing too much focus on cutting
"wasteful" spending.
It also alienated bureaucrats by making controversial political decisions
and mishandled some political issues, including how to reduce the large presence
of U.S. forces on the southern island of Okinawa, the site of fierce battles in
the closing days of World War II.
The Democratic Party imploded amid political infighting and the ill-fated
decision by then prime minister Yoshihiko Noda to dissolve the Lower House and
call a snap election in late 2012, in which the party suffered a severe loss and
allowed the LDP and its leader Abe to return to power.
If Abe stays in power, he is expected to continue his reflationary policy
mix of aggressive monetary easing, increased fiscal spending, and structural
reforms.
In that case, the Bank of Japan will maintain its large-scale easing until
it achieves its 2% inflation target under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his
successor. Kuroda's five-year terms ends on April 8.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$,MC$$$$,MGJ$$$]
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.