Pressured, Empire Manufacturing Highest Since July 2022.

TYM3 deals at 114-10, -0-01+, in line with late NY levels.

• Cash tsys finished 7-10bps cheaper on Monday, the curve bear flattened.
• Tsys were pressured after a stronger than expected Empire Manufacturing print. The measure maintains its recent volatile history, with a standard deviation of 20 points since 2021. Monday's print leaves the index at its highest level since July 2022.
• Pressure extended as TYM3 broke 114-14 the 50-Day EMA. A break of 114-07 opens 113-23 a Fibonacci retracement.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin reiterated comments seen in previous communique that he wants more evidence of US inflation easing back to the bank's 2% target.
• There were no signs of progress on the US Debt Ceiling, Speaker McCarthy has yet to present a budget or formal list of Republican priorities which the White House have stated is a condition of negotiations.
• In Asia today we have RBA minutes of the April Policy Meeting and Chinese GDP. Further out US House Starts will cross as will Fedspeak from Governor Bowman.