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Pressured On Debt Ceiling Optimism, Fedpseak

US TSYS

TYM3 deals at 114-00+, +0-03, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 5-10bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys were pressured yesterday as Congressional leaders made plans for votes on a bipartisan deal to avoid debt default. An estimated $1tn in bill issuance as the US Treasury moves to increase cash buffers following debt ceiling resolution also weighed, this would have the same impact as a 25bp hike all else being equal.
  • Dallas Fed President Logan said that the case for a rate pause in June isn't clear amid sticky core inflation and high wage growth.
  • FOMC dated OIS price ~8bps of hikes in June with a terminal rate of 5.16%, there are ~50bps of cuts priced for 2023.
  • In Asia today we have national CPI data from Japan. Further out the docket is thin with German PPI the highlight. Fedpseak from Fed Chair Powell, NY Fed President Williams and Gov. Bowman will cross.
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