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Pressured On Wednesday

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 111-15, +0-03+, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 1-7bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear steepened.
  • Tsys were pressured through Wednesday's dealing as today's ADP Employment Change and tomorrow's NFP prints come into view.
  • The minutes of the June FOMC meeting noted that almost all participants judged that further rate increases in 2023 would be appropriate. There was a split on raising rates in June as some members indicated they could have supported a 25bp hike.
  • Fedspeak from NY Fed President Williams crossed, he noted that the Fed likely needs to raise rates further due to persistently high inflation and stronger-than-expected growth.
  • FOMC dated OIS price a ~20bp hike into the July meeting, with a terminal rate of 5.40% in November. There are ~60bps of cuts priced to June 2024.
  • There is a thin docket in Asia today. Further out we have ADP Employment and ISM Services. Fedspeak from Dallas Fed President Logan crosses.

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