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Price Pressures Moderate In January

INDONESIA

Inflation moderated in Indonesia in January suggesting that Bank Indonesia’s 225bp of tightening this cycle are doing their work and that BI may be close to pausing. Headline inflation rose less than expected in January at 5.3% y/y from 5.5% in December driven by lower utilities, transport and household goods prices. Underlying inflation, which the BI focuses on, moderated to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% but it is too soon to call a peak here (see chart).

  • Headline inflation remains well above the upper end of the 2-4% target band but for now it looks like core inflation will remain within the band, which will be a relief to BI. It has been tightening policy to limit the pass through of higher headline prices and also to stabilise the IDR. The BI aims to return inflation to target in H2 2023.
  • Transport prices moderated to 13.9% y/y from 15.3% in December. They remain elevated as the reduction in fuel subsidies in September is still feeding through. Food inflation was stable at 5.8%.
Indonesia CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg

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