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Price Signal Summary - Bunds Approach A Key Short-Term Support

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain below Monday's high. In pattern terms, the candle formation on this day is a shooting star and still highlights a potential short-term top. If correct, this leaves support at 4625.25 exposed, the Nov 10 low. That said, the contract has recovered off Tuesday's low and this is potentially encouraging for bulls. Key resistance is Monday's high of 4740.50. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures managed to find support yesterday just ahead of the 50-day EMA - at 4235.50 today. This average marks a key support parameter and a breach is required to signal the next leg lower. For now, yesterday's low of 4236.50 does suggest a potential short-term base. An extension higher would open 4409.50, Nov 18 high.
  • In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD objectives are now set at; 1.1185 Jul 1, 2020 low and 1.1128, 1.764 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. GBPUSD traded lower yesterday. The focus is on 1.3304, the Dec 22, 2020 low. USDJPY remains in its uptrend. The pair has breached the 115.00 handle. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 116.09, the 1.764 projection of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following this week's move lower. The short-term objective is the base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 low. The channel base intersects at $1756.2 today.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures, despite having pulled back this week, remain above key short-term support at 170.06, Nov 5 low. A break of this level would suggest potential for a deeper pullback. While it holds, it can still be argued that the recent pullback is a correction. Gilts traded lower yesterday and breached support at 125.40, Nov 17 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights the potential risk of a deeper sell-off. An extension of the pullback would expose 124.25, the Nov 1 low.
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