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Price Signal Summary - Equity Space Remains Vulnerable

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis sold off sharply yesterday but recovered strongly from the day low. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term however bearish conditions continue to dominate. A break of yesterday’s low of 4212.75 would confirm a resumption of this month's downtrend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s sharp accelerated sell-off reinforces the bearish threat. Former support at 4216.50, Jan 10 low has been cleared and this has resulted in the break of a number of short-term support levels. The move lower has exposed 3980.00, Nov 30 low and 3935.00, Oct 6 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading lower this morning and sights are on support at 1.1272, Jan 4 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for weakness towards 1.1222, Dec 15 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This allows for a deeper unwinding of the bull rally between Dec 8 - Jan 13 and the focus is on 1.3456, 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase. USDJPY yesterday probed support at 113.49, Jan 14 low. This cancels recent bullish signals and the doji candle reversal on Jan 14. A deeper pullback would open 113.14, Dec 17 low. Resistance is at 115.06, Jan 18 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold maintains a positive tone. This follows last week’s break of resistance at $1831.9, Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Attention is on $1848.0 next, 76.4% of the Nov 16 - Dec 15 downleg. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the most recent pullback is still considered corrective. Key support to watch is at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at $80.33 today.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher yesterday and probed key short-term resistance at 171.00, the Jan 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery and open the 50-day EMA at 171.64. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger is 168.95, Jan 19 low. Gilts remain in a downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 123.79, Jan 13 high where a break is required to highlight a short-term base. The bear trigger is unchanged at 121.93, Jan 19 low.

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