MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Price Signal Summary - ESU1 Resumes Its Uptrend

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the S&P E-minis closed Friday at another all-time high. The outlook remains bullish despite today's pullback. The focus is on 4415.48, 1.00 projection of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded above the important 4101.50 resistance, Jul 1 high. An extension would open the 4153.00 key resistance, Jun 17 high.
  • In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD is consolidating. The focus remains on 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. GBPUSD is holding onto recent gains. The move higher from 1.3572, Jul 20 low is likely a correction. The resistance to watch is 1.3806, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY continues to trade above 109.07, Jul 19 low. This represents a key short-term support and bear trigger. Near-term resistance is at 110.70, Jul 14 high. A break would be a bullish development.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating and maintains a bullish tone with the focus on the bull trigger at $1834.1, Jul 15 high. Key short-term support is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low and was tested and briefly probed Friday but has provided support. A clear break of this level would however be bearish. Brent (U1) is testing $73.87, 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. A clear breach would open $75.39, the 76.4% level. WTI (U1) is holding onto the bulk of last week's gains. An extension would open $73.46, 76% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg.
  • Within FI, Bund futures remain firm following last week's clear break of 174.77, Jul 8 high. Sights are on 176.64, the Feb 11 high (cont). Gilts maintain a bullish tone despite the recent pullback. The break of 129.92, Jul 8 high opens 130.72, 2.236 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. We are however still monitoring a bearish candle pattern, an evening star reversal following the Jul 21 close . A deeper pullback would expose support at 128.54, low Jul 14.
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