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MNI: GERMANY NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 43.0 (FLASH 43.2); OCT 43.0

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Price Signal Summary - EUR Fragile Above Key Support

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In FX, EURUSD printed a lower low Wednesday, narrowing the gap with key support at the 1.1704 2021 low printed back in March. Stiff support is expected here ahead of the 1.1685 mark, at which the 38.2% Fib crosses for the 2020 - 2021 rally. USDJPY added to recent gains in early Wednesday trade, topping out a new monthly high of 110.80 before fading. This keeps the outlook positive, with 110.82 the next upside level ahead of the 111.66 bull trigger.
  • Brent futures traded inside the Tuesday range on Wednesday, flattening off the recovery off the Monday low. The move below the 50-day EMA last week looks convincing, with support now exposed at $66.91. To resume any incline, bulls need to again take out $74.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. Silver followed gold sharply lower Monday, clearing through all nearby support to touch the lowest levels since late 2020. This has accelerated the formation of a death cross in DMA space, with the 50-dma likely to dip below the 200-dma in the coming sessions. A break and close below Monday's low would be resolutely bearish
  • S&P E-minis outlook is bullish as evidence of dip buying remains solid on intraday pullbacks. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are extending gains, topping out at new cycle highs of 4215.00. This extends the winning streak to seven consecutive sessions of higher highs. This follows the break above previous resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high.
  • The winning streak in Bund futures concluded Friday, with bond markets globally edging lower. This ends the winning streak of 8 consecutive sessions of higher highs, although the outlook holds bullish. Any return higher targets 177.69, a Fibonacci extension.
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