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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, the S&P E-minis trend condition remains bullish and the contract traded above the 4800.00 handle yesterday. Despite not being able to hold onto levels above 4800.00, further gains are seen likely and the current consolidation represents a pause in the uptrend. The focus is on 4854.19, 0.764 projection of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 - Dec 3 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend and continue to push higher. Attention is on the key resistance at 4392.50, the Nov 18 high.
- In FX, EURUSD remains below the key resistance of 1.1383/86, the Nov 30 and Dec 31 high. The pair continues to consolidate inside December’s range. A deeper pullback would expose support at 1.1222, Dec 15 low ahead of the bear trigger at 1.1185, Jul 1, 2020. A clear breach of 1.13783/86 is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and above its 50-day EMA at 1.3431 - the recent breach of this average reinforced bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.3578, 61.8% of the Oct - Dec sell-off and 1.3607, the Nov 9 high. EURGBP remains vulnerable. The recent move lower has opened the major support and bear trigger at 0.8282/77, the Feb’20 / Dec’19 low and key bear trigger. Note too that the 0.8300 area is the base of a broad multi-year range and is a key pivot level. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8419, Monday’s high. USDJPY cleared key resistance at 115.52 yesterday, the Nov 24 high. The break confirms a resumption of both the short and medium-term trends, paving the way for a climb towards 116.09 next, 1.764 projection of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Monday’s high in Gold of $1831.9 (resistance) plus 1780.6, the channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low (support), mark the key short-term directional triggers. For now, the trend remains up and it remains to be seen whether a bearish engulfing candle pattern on Monday will result in a deeper sell-off below the channel base. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. Recent weakness proved to be corrective and Monday’s low of $74.27 represents a key short-term support. Scope is seen for a climb towards $78.59, Nov 24 high.
- In the FI space, Bund futures started the year on a soft note. The contract remains vulnerable. Last week’s breach of support at 171.77, Nov 24 low strengthened the bearish case, paving the way for a move towards 170.19, Nov 2 low ahead of the major support at 169.34, the Oct 29 low. Gilts remain in a downtrend. The contract has cleared support at 124.17, Nov 24 low. The break of this level strengthens bearish conditions and opens 123.48, the 3.00 projection of the Dec 8 - 16 - 20 price swing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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