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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have started the week on a clear bearish note. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a print below 3810.00, the May 20 low and bear trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and open 3697.99, 0.618 projection of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have weakened again today as the contract extends the reversal from recent highs. The pace of the latest sell-off signals potential for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 3466.00, May 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3857.00, Jun 6 high. Initial resistance is seen at 3738.70, the 50-day EMA.
- In FX, EURUSD ended last week’s session on a soft note and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The latest key technical development has been the inability to clear the top of its bear channel resistance, drawn from the Feb 10 high - the channel top intersects at 1.0724 today. The reversal lower suggests the May 13 - 30 correction is over. This opens 1.0461 next, the May 18/19 low followed by 1.0350, the May 13 low and bear trigger. The channel base is at 1.0186. Key resistance is at 1.0724/87, the channel top and May 30 high. The latest move lower in GBPUSD highlights a clear reversal of the bull cycle between May 13 - 27. This signals potential for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.2156, May 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2517, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains in a clear uptrend and has tested levels above 135.00. Trend conditions remain bullish and a resumption of strength above 135.00 would open 136.04, 1.382 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
- On the commodity front, the short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $1871.7. The yellow metal has traded above the average, a clear break is still required though to signal scope for a stronger rally towards trendline resistance at $1899.0. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. Note that recent gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $1787.0, May 16 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain bullish and the uptrend is intact. The focus is on $123.35, 1.236 projection of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing. Key short-term support is at $114.77, the 20-day EMA
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to weaken. The focus is on 146.00 and 145.85, 1.764 projection of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing. Gilts continue to head south, the focus is on 112.10 3.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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