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Price Signal Summary: Fresh USDBRL Cycle Low

LATAM FX
  • USDMXN is trading closer to its recent lows and remains below 20.9141, the Jan 28 high. Attention is on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 20.2787, Jan 18 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 20.2517, Nov 9 low and 20.1196, Oct 26 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 20.9141. A break would instead highlight a short-term bullish reversal.
  • USDBRL remains soft. The pair has traded lower again today as it extends the current bear cycle. A bearish theme follows last week’s sell-off that confirmed a clear break of support at 5.3885, the Nov 11 low. The move lower highlights a range breakout and has confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 21. Sights are on 5.2230, the 61.8% retracement of the rally between Jun - Dec last year. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5.3940, the 20-day EMA.
  • The USDCLP trend direction remains bearish despite recent gains. The downtrend is highlighted by a bearish moving average condition that suggest recent gains are corrective. Furthermore, a breach on Jan 5 of trendline support drawn from the May 10 2021 low highlighted a reversal. A return lower and a break to fresh cycle lows would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 788.22, the Nov 10 low ahead of 783.23, the 50.0% retracement of the May - Dec 2021 upleg. The bear trigger is 793.46, Jan 27 low. Next resistance is seen at 834.81 and 844.56, the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement values of the Dec 20 - Jan 27 downleg.
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