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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-minis have recovered somewhat following Monday's sell-off. The outlook is bearish however following the clear breach of the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support and bear trigger has been established at Monday's low of 4293.75. Price needs to trade above 4418.00, Sep 20 high to suggest the tide may have turned, signalling scope for stronger recovery. Note a break higher would also mean price is once again above the 50-day EMA and this would represent a positive development. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also started the week on a bearish note and cleared former support at 4060.50, Aug 19 low. This signals scope for weakness towards 3962.50, 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally. The next resistance is at 4127.40, the 20-day EMA. Current gains are considered corrective.
- In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish. Monday's weakness resulted in a breach of 1.1722, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. This opens the key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. GBPUSD traded sharply lower Monday and cleared support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. The next key support is at 1.3602, Aug 20 low. Note too that there is a triangle base at 1.3632 that also represents an important support. The triangle is drawn from the July 20 low. Recent USD Index (DXY) gains have exposed the key resistance at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
- On the commodity front, the Gold near-term outlook remains bearish. The focus is on $1724.5, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. Resistance is at $1786.8, the 20-day EMA. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook. Yesterday's price pattern is a bullish doji candle, reinforcing the current uptrend. Initial support is seen at $69.39, Sep 21 low. The focus is on $73.58, Jul 6 high and the bull trigger
- In FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend. Recent weakness signals scope for a move towards 170.52, 3.00 projection of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 172.12, Sep 14 high. Gilt futures remain in a bearish cycle too. The focus is on 126.83, 2.00 projection of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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