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Price Signal Summary - Gilt Futures Remain Vulnerable

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, a bear cycle in Bund futures, that started off the May 16 high of 132.11, remains in play. Wednesday’s move to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year and opens 128.42 next, the Nov 1 ‘23 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 130.54, the 20-day EMA.
  • Gilt futures traded sharply lower Wednesday as the contract extends the reversal that started May 16. Yesterday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support around 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next, a 2.382 projection of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing. First resistance is yesterday’s high of 96.43.
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