August 10, 2022 10:02 GMT
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- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in consolidation mode. The short-term trend outlook is unchanged and bullish. A fresh high print Monday reinforces the current condition and this signals scope for a climb towards 4204.75, May 31 high and the next key resistance. Initial key support is 4008.43, the 50-day EMA. The first support to watch is 4080.50, Aug 2 low. The short-term uptrend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is intact. The contract has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The focus is on 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Initial firm support to watch is 3607.80, the 50-day EMA.
- In FX, EURUSD short-term conditions are bullish as long as support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low, remains intact. Potential is seen for an extension higher inside the bull channel drawn from the Feb 10 high - the top intersects at 1.0352 and this is a key short-term resistance. A breach of 1.0097 would highlight a bearish development. A bullish short-term theme in GBPUSD remains intact despite the recent pullback. A resumption of gains would open 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support to watch lies at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. No change in USDJPY and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. It is still possible that the latest bounce is a correction. Resistance to watch is 135.96, 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg. 130.41, Aug 2 low, is the bear trigger.
- On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on trendline resistance, drawn from the Mar 8 high. The line was pierced yesterday, a clear break would represent an important technical breach and highlight a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. The trendline intersects at $1794.6 and yesterday’s high was $1800.4. A clear break of the $1800.0 handle would confirm a trendline break. Initial firm support lies at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following last week’s move lower. Price has breached support at $88.23, Jul 14 low and a key support. This has exposed $85.37, the Mar 15 low. Yesterday’s candle pattern is a doji and this signals the end of the 3-day corrective bounce.
- In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the recent pullback is likely a correction. Scope is seen for a climb to 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Initial firm support is 155.16, the 20-day EMA. The trend direction in Gilts remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Two support levels to watch are:
- 116.41, 50-day EMA.
- 116.61, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low.