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Price Signal Summary: Gold Strong Above the 50-Day EMA

MNI
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis recovered very well Friday, striking a new alltime high in the process. Key near-term support remains the 4271.36, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. The bull trigger is at 4400.00, round number resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) futures initially traded lower Friday before finding solid support and recovering into the close. The contract has topped previous support-turned-resistance at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. This raises the risk of a rally toward the Jul 1 high at 4101.50.
  • In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish despite the Thursday/Friday recovery. EURUSD traded lower mid-week, extending the downtrend to keep focus on 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Gains are considered corrective. The GBPUSD focus is on 1.3733, Jul 2 low where a break would open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Resistance is at 1.3948, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY remains vulnerable following last week's sell-off. The move lower has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA at 109.88 as well as the Jun 21 low at 109.72. A resumption of weakness would expose 109.19/14, the Jun 7 low and the 100-dma.
  • On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1814.1. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. This would open $1833.7, 50.0% of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) remains vulnerable following this week's downleg. The focus is on $71.24, the Jun 17 low. Gains are considered corrective. WTI (Q1) has also cleared its 20-day EMA this week and attention turns to $69.54, Jun 17 low.
  • Within FI, Bund futures remain firm having cleared resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Scope is for a climb to 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont). Gilt futures remain bullish despite the pullback from Thursday's high. Futures have topped key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high, strengthening the current bullish case. Attention is on 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont).
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