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Price Signal Summary - Market Remains In Risk Averse Mode

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have started the week on a softer note. The sell-off late last week and today, signals potential for a deeper pullback. Futures are back below the 50-day EMA, at 4590.64. This is an important technical break as it strengthens a bearish threat and exposes key support at 4485.75, Dec 3 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures last week failed to hold onto the high of 4234.00 on Dec 16 and the contract has started the week on a softer note. Today’s bearish pressure has exposed the key support handle at 3980.00, the Nov 30 low and the bear trigger.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. Support lies at 1.1222, the Dec 15 low and 1.1186, Nov 24 low. The latter is key support and represents the bear trigger. GBPUSD has failed to hold onto recent gains. The reversal lower Friday highlights a potential resumption of the underlying downtrend and attention is on support at 1.3163, the Dec 8 low and the bear trigger. USDJPY lacks a clear direction at this stage. The near-term directional triggers are; 114.26, the Dec 15 high and 113.14, Friday’s low
  • On the commodity front, Gold last Wednesday attempted to clear the base of its bull channel from the Aug 9 low. At this stage, the move lower appears to have been a false break and the strong recovery from $1753.7, Dec 15 low suggests the yellow metal is reversing its recent downtrend. Watch resistance at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high. A breach would strengthen bullish conditions. WTI futures have traded lower today. The move lower has resulted in a breach of support at $69.21 and this paves the way for a weakness towards $66.62, the Dec 6 low and more importantly exposes the key support at $62.26, the Dec 2 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in an uptrend. Support at 173.40 is intact and this level needs to be cleared to signal a short-term reversal. The key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 175.02, Dec 8 high. Gilts trend outlook remains bullish too. Short-term support has been defined at 126.34, Dec 16 low. A break would sour the short-term tone. The trigger for a resumption of strength is 127.67, Dec 8 high.
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