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Price Signal Summary - Oil Is Volatile But Still Defying Gravity

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded above the 20-day EMA at 4386.89 last Thursday. The failure to hold above this EMA is a bearish development. Broader trend signals remain bearish and a deeper pullback would open the 4101.75 key support handle and bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply lower again today to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. The contract has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21, at 3468.60. The focus is on 3379, Dec 21 2020 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend and still facing selling pressure. With the 1.0800 handle looking exposed, the focus is on 1.0767 next, the May 7 2020 low. GBPUSD continues to weaken and has cleared a key near-term support at 1.3163, the Dec 8 low. The break reinforces the bearish condition and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 1.3104 next, a 1.382 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. EURGBP remains below the 0.8300 handle, the base of a broad multi-year range that was recently breached. The focus is on 0.8193, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing. USDJPY key short-term support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low, remains intact. The trend outlook is bullish but a break of 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4, is still required to confirm a resumption of the trend. EURJPY remains under pressure as a strong impulsive sell-off extends. Sights are on 124.28, 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is trading higher and has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have cleared the top of the recent bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The focus is the psychological $2000.0 handle that has been probed and $2004.4, 2.236 projection of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing. Oil markets are volatile but remain in an uptrend. The gap higher today in WTI suggests scope for a climb towards $132.75, 3.618 projection of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 169.44, 0.764 projection of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing. Gilts have pulled back from Tuesday’s high of 126.81. Support is seen at 123.50, the Mar 1 low. A resumption of recent gains would open 126.90, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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