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Price Signal Summary - Risk-Off Drives USD, Gold And Oil Higher

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the S&P E-minis technical condition remains bearish and a strong impulsive sell-off has resumed once again today. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 4212.75, the Jan 24 low, resulting in fresh lows for the year and a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The focus is on the 4100.00 handle and 3990.50, 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded sharply today as a risk averse mood weighs on price. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year. Futures have this week cleared a number of key support levels and from a technical viewpoint, this suggests scope for a deeper sell-off. Sights are on 3727.00, Mar 25 2021 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD is under pressure. Today’s weakness has resulted in a break of support at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low. This has also led to a breach of the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg and paves the way for a sell-off towards key support at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. GBPUSD weakness is extending this morning following the break of a key short-term support at 1.3487, Feb 15 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. USDJPY has this week traded below its 50-day EMA - at 114.77 - The next key short-term support to watch is 114.16, the Feb 2 low. In EURJPY, the cross is through support at 128.25. This exposes 127.52, the Dec 20 low and 127.39, the Dec 3 and 6 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold has surged higher today and cleared the top of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The channel top intersects $1938.4. The move higher reinforces the current bullish technical condition and opens $1980.8, the 2.00 projection of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and today’s impulsive rally has resulted in a break of the $100.00 psychological handle. This reinforces bullish conditions and sets sights on $102.01 next - 3.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
  • In the FI space, Bund futures have traded sharply higher today, reversing Tuesday’s pullback and have breached resistance at 167.17, Feb 22 high plus trendline resistance at 167.20. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 20 high. This signals scope for a stronger short-term correction and has opened the 50-day EMA at 168.66. The trend condition in Gilts resistance to watch is at 123.53, the Feb 18 high. A break would signal potential for a stronger short-term climb. Key short-term support is at 121.10, the Feb 16 low.
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