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Pullback Considered Corrective


Holding Above Recent Lows


BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor


Strong Bounce

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  • In the equity space, conditions have improved for bulls, for now at least. S&P E-minis started the week on a bearish note but found support at Monday's low. The contact has tested the 50-day EMA at 4239.07 and the average has so far also provided support. A key pivot level has been defined at 4224.00, Monday's low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are extending the recovery from Monday's low of 3895.00, low Jul 19 and marks a pivotal short-term support. Gains are considered corrective, 4039.00 marks initial resistance, the 20-day EMA.
  • In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low and key support. GBPUSD took out key support at 1.3669, Apr 12 low as well as the 200-dma at 1.3700. The breach of 1.3669 reinforces bearish conditions and paves the way for an extension of the bear cycle towards 1.3520 next, Jan 18 low. USDJPY is trading above Monday's low but remains vulnerable. This week's low print of 109.07 confirms a resumption of the downtrend paving the way for an extension lower. The focus is on 108.47, 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally. Resistance is at 110.34, Jul 16 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Price needs to clear last week's high print to confirm a resumption of the recent upleg. Key short-term support is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low. Brent futures gains are considered corrective. The focus is on $67.43, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at $70.54, 50.0% of Monday's range. WTI (U1) sights are on $64.60, 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally.
  • Within FI, Bund futures remain firm following this week's break of 174.77, Jul 8 high. Sights are on 176.30, 76.4% retracement of the Dec '20 - May sell-off (cont). Gilts remain in a bullish condition despite the current pullback. The break of 129.92, Jul 8 high confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 130.72 2.236 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing.