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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bearish Risk Remains Present

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable and the contract is again facing selling pressure. Last week’s sell-off and break of the 50-day EMA reinforces the current bearish threat. A move through last week's low of 4492.00 on Friday, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4443.55, 61.8% of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 4612.76, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recently traded in a choppy manner. A bearish risk remains in place though with the focus on 3949.50, Oct 6 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 4186.00, Dec 1 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish although for now, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. 1.1383, the Nov 30 high is the key resistance to watch where a break would suggest potential for a stronger recovery and open 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The bear trigger is 1.1186/85, Nov 24 and Jul 1, 2020 low. GBPUSD trend signals remain bearish and a break of 1.3195, Dec 1 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3165, 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 upleg. 1.3391 is resistance, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY is firmer this morning but despite this, a short-term bearish threat remains present following the sharp sell-off on Nov 26. The pair has recently probed support at 112.73, Nov 9 low. A clear break would strengthen the bearish case opening 112.08, Sep 30 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. Attention is on the base of the bull channel at $1762.1, drawn from the Aug 9 low. Thursday’s rebound in WTI futures has defined $62.43 as a key short-term support. The bounce highlights potential for a recovery that would allow a recent oversold condition to unwind. The next firm resistance is at $71.22, Nov 30 high. For bears, a break of $62.43 would resume the downtrend.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded to a fresh trend high again on Friday. The focus shifts to 175.02 1.382 projection of the Nov 11 - 22 - 24 price swing. Gilts are unchanged and maintain a bullish tone. The 127.00 handle has been breached and this opens 127.36 Sep 7 high. Initial support is at 125.44, Nov 26 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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