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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Correction Extends

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a short-term bullish theme as price extends the recent bounce from 3639.00, Jun 17 low. The break of the 20-day EMA last week, signals scope for a move higher towards the 50-day EMA, at 4042.61. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher today and moved above the 20-day EMA. A continuation would confirm an extension of the current corrective cycle and open 3638.50, the 50-day EMA.
  • In FX, EURUSD is slightly firmer. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now - and the primary trend direction is down. The focus is on weakness towards 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. Key channel resistance intersects at 1.0637 today - the channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and still represents a key short-term resistance. GBPUSD is unchanged and still in consolidation mode. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Both 1.1934 and 1.2406 are seen as important short-term directional triggers. USDJPY remains bullish and last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective, support to watch is at 133.41, the 20-day EMA.
  • On the commodity front, the near-term outlook in Gold is bearish. The focus is on $1787.0, May 16 low, where a break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance to watch is at $1874.1. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and a break would signal a short-term reversal. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following last week’s break lower and despite the recovery from last Wednesday’s low of $101.53. A resumption of weakness would open $100.66, the May 19 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher last week and cleared the 20-day EMA. The break has strengthened short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a recovery towards 150.06, 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg. Gains are still considered corrective, first support is at 144.81, the Jun 23 low. Gilts rallied last Thursday and cleared the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery, and has opened 155.55, the Jun 6 high. Watch support at 111.93, the Jun 23 low.
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