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Market News Topics
May 16, 2022 10:02 GMT
Price Signal Summary - USD Index Remains Above 104.00
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s continuation lower and fresh cycle lows, reinforces the primary bearish trend condition and signals scope for an extension lower. The next objective is 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 4099.00, the May 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are also considered corrective. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low and of 3551.60, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. This has exposed 3458.90 next, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is at 3743.6, the 50-day EMA.
- In FX, EURUSD traded lower last Thursday and cleared support at 1.0472, Apr 28 low. The breach confirms a bear flag breakout and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.0341, the Jan 3 2017 low and a key support. GBPUSD remains weak following last week’s extension of the downtrend. The focus is on 1.2162 next, the May 22 2020 low. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and last week’s move lower is likely a correction. Initial support has been defined at 127.52, Thursday’s low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. A break would open 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The USD Index (DXY) is trading above 104.00. This signals a potential break of the multi year range resistance and reinforces the current bullish USD theme
- On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following last week’s resumption of the downtrend. The yellow metal has started the week on a softer note, trading through the $1800.0 handle. The focus is on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. In the Oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present, despite the recovery from last Wednesday’s low of $98.20 low. Key short-term resistance is at $111.37, the May 5 high. This level has been probed but a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger bounce. Today’s high so far is $111.71. $98.20, May 11 low, is a key support.
- In the FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 9 reinforced the bearish condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is 156.00, the Apr 28 high. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. However, Thursday’s move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 119.79, the Apr 25 high. This signals potential for a stronger short-term corrective phase and opens 121.84 next, 50.0% of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.87, the May 9 low. This is also the bear trigger.
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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