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MNI Gilt Week Ahead
Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Direction Remains Up
- In the equity space, the S&P E-minis traded higher again yesterday to another all-time high. The outlook remains bullish despite today's pullback. The focus is on 4420.92, 0.764 projection of the Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing. Support is seen at 4330.80, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded above the important 4101.50 resistance, Jul 1 high last week. An extension would open the 4153.00 key resistance, Jun 17 high. Support to watch is at 4029.50, Jul 22 high.
- In FX, the USD outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. EURUSD is consolidating. The focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. GBPUSD is holding onto recent gains. The move higher from 1.3572, Jul 20 low is considered a correction. The next resistance to watch is 1.3884, the 50-day EMA . USDJPY continues to trade above 109.07, Jul 19 low. This represents a key short-term support and bear trigger. The pair remains below resistance at 110.70, Jul 14 high and is weaker today. A break above 110.70 would be a bullish development.
- On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating and maintains a bullish tone with the focus on the bull trigger at $1834.1, Jul 15 high. Key short-term support is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low and was tested and briefly probed Friday but has provided support. A clear break of this level would be bearish. Brent (U1) has cleared $73.87, 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. The move higher opens $75.39, the 76.4% level. WTI (U1) is holding onto the bulk of its recent gains. An extension would open $73.46, 76% of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg.
- Within FI, Bund futures remain firm and traded higher yesterday. Sights are on 176.64, the Feb 11 high (cont). Gilts maintain a bullish tone. The break of 129.92, Jul 8 high opens 130.72, 2.236 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. We are still monitoring a bearish candle pattern, an evening star reversal from the Jul 21 close. A deeper pullback would expose 128.54, low Jul 14.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.