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Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Direction Remains Up

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the short-term trend condition in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish. This follows Friday’s strong sell-off that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4086.25. Scope is seen for a move towards 3983.25 next, 50% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg. The EUROSTOXX 50 contract sold off sharply too on Friday, resuming the current bearish cycle. The break signals potential for a move lower towards 3526.00, 61.8% of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally.
  • In FX, the EURUSD trend direction remains down, following the recent breach of key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and the focus is on 0.9883 next, 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing. Friday’s 1.0090 is the first resistance. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and Monday’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on the 1.1600 handle. USDJPY short-term conditions remain bullish. Monday’s climb resulted in a breach of resistance at 137.71, the Aug 22 high. The break opens 139.39, the Jul 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open 140.00.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and Monday’s move lower reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached. This opens $1711.0, 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 upleg. In the {7I} Oil space, the WTI futures short-term outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s strong rally reinforces a positive outlook. A continuation higher would open $99.75, the Jul 29 high. Initial firm support has been defined at $91.08, the Aug 26 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures started the week on a softer note, gapping lower Monday. The contract is trading closer to recent lows and further weakness is likely near-term. Attention is on 146.50, the Jun 30 low. Gilts remain vulnerable and sights are set on the 108.00 handle next.
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