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Price Signal Summary - USDBRL Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

LATAM FX
  • USDMXN touched a fresh trend low of 16.9811 on Wednesday, before recovering. The downtrend remains intact and the break lower this week marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards 16.9791 and 16.7758, the 1.618 and 1.764 projections of the Jun 2 - Mar 9 - Mar 20 price swing. Resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 17.4533. This is a key short-term hurdle for bulls, where a clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 17.7714, the May 31 high.
  • USDBRL remains in a downtrend and gains since Jun 22, appear to be a correction. However, initial firm resistance at 4.9103, the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this level would signal a potential reversal. This would open the 5.00 handle initially. For bears, the move lower on Jun 9 resulted in a break of 4.8859, the May 15 low and this confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. A resumption of the bear trend would open 4.7490, the Jun 6 2022 low and 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low. The bear trigger lies at 4.7513, the Jun 22 low.
  • USDCLP continues to trade inside a range. The pair pierced (in mid-May) support at 783.10, the Mar 31 low. A clear break of this level would expose the key bear trigger at 776.28, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. For now, the price remains above the May 15 low. A stronger bounce would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 837.15, the Mar 17 high.
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