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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resumes Its Downtrend

OUTLOOK
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  • In FX, EURUSD is trading higher this week. The latest recovery undermines a recent bear theme and exposes 1.0529, the Feb 26 high, and more importantly, resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear break of 1.0533 would highlight a stronger bullish short-term theme. This would open 1.0630, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A key near-term support has been defined at 1.0360, the Feb 28 low. A break of it would be bearish.
  • The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish - for now - and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. The pair has pierced 1.2716, the Feb 26 high. Sights are on 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2545, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDJPY is trading lower today. The move down has resulted in a print below support at 148.57, the Feb 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower has also resulted in a clear breach of 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. This paves the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
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  • In FX, EURUSD is trading higher this week. The latest recovery undermines a recent bear theme and exposes 1.0529, the Feb 26 high, and more importantly, resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear break of 1.0533 would highlight a stronger bullish short-term theme. This would open 1.0630, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A key near-term support has been defined at 1.0360, the Feb 28 low. A break of it would be bearish.
  • The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish - for now - and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. The pair has pierced 1.2716, the Feb 26 high. Sights are on 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2545, the 50-day EMA.
  • USDJPY is trading lower today. The move down has resulted in a print below support at 148.57, the Feb 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower has also resulted in a clear breach of 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low. This paves the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.