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Price Signal Summary: USDMXN Gains Still Considered Corrective

LATAM FX
  • USDMXN is unchanged and remains above recent lows. The trend outlook is unchanged too and the primary short-term direction remains down. This theme follows the sell-off since Nov 26 and a sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has been established. Attention is on 20.2517, Nov 9 low and 20.1196, Oct 26 low. The latter is a key support. On the upside, resistance is seen at 20.7603, Jan 6 high. A break is required to signal a base and confirm a clear break of the 50-day EMA. This would open 20.9557, Dec 20 high.
  • USDBRL traded lower last week, clearing support at the 5.50 handle. This break lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear leg and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 5.3885 next (probed last Thursday), the Nov 11 low. A clear break would open 5.3249, 50.0% of the Jun - Oct rally last year. Yesterday’s weakness means the pair remains below key short-term resistance at 5.5823, Jan 18 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
  • USDCLP trend direction remains down. Attention is on support at 788.22, the Nov 10 low ahead of 783.23, the 50.0% retracement of the May - Dec 2021 upleg. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support on Jan 5, drawn from the May 10, 2021 low and a break of the 50-day EMA on Jan 7. The extension lower reinforces a clear bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 822.15 the 20-day EMA.
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