Prigozhin Arrives In Belarus, Future Of Wagner Group Remains Uncertain

According to Belorussian state media outlet Belta, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko has confirmed that Wagner chief Evgeny Prigozhin has arrived in Belarus, in accordance with a deal negotiated by Prigozhin and Lukashenko to withdraw Wagner troops from a march on Moscow.

• The confirmation will end speculation on the whereabouts of the Wagner leader but question remains over the future role Wagner combatants will play in the war in Ukraine.
• Andriy Zagorodnyuk of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Studies thinktank, and advisor to President Zelensky, told Semafor that he expects some Wagner combatants will be dispersed into different Russian military units but cautioned that the group is still “extremely dangerous” and could potentially regroup in Belarus.
• Zagorodnyuk also cautioned against Western reports that the withdrawal of Wagner would open up counteroffensive opportunities for Kyiv, stating, “Most of them were not on the front already by the time [the insurrection] happened.”