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Prior Risk-Off Keeps USDCAD Within Bullish Trend Structure

CANADA
  • USDCAD at ~1.356 sits within 20 pips of overnight highs of 1.3578 in an extension of yesterday’s broader risk-off moves.
  • The climb took it off the yesterday’s recent low of 1.3478 and supported the trend structure that is still deemed bullish. Resistance is seen at the well-tested bull trigger of 1.3614 from multiple March highs.
  • As noted above, there is a solid $1.3bn expiring at 1.3500-10 with today’s NY cut.
  • Landing with US payrolls, today’s CAD jobs report is the last major release before Wed's BoC just five weeks on from the last decision.
  • BoC-dated implied rates have cooled in recent sessions but still only have a cumulative 17.5bp of cuts for the June decision with the first cut not fully priced until July.

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