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Private Payrolls Impress In Solid Establishment Survey Beat

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The Establishment survey in May's Employment Report is clearly much stronger than had been expected, with +272k representing a beat of 92k on headline expectations of +160k (offset slightly by -15k 2-month revisions) and 69k in private payrolls (which came in at +229k, albeit offset by 20k lower revisions).

  • Gov't jobs rebounded from April's 7k (rev lower from 8k) but just to 43k (had averaged 67k in Q1), so as the arithmetic implies, the gains in the establishment survey were clearly private payroll-driven - which will be considered a more "solid" gain in terms of overall labor market dynamics.
  • Gains picked up most notably in "professional & business" activity (+33k vs -1k prior) and "food & drink@ (+25k vs 9k prior), with health/social assistance still solid at +84k (+101k prior). Construction jobs also picked up to +21k (0k prior).
  • April now looks clearly like a weak anomaly therefore, with services jobs performing solidly (private goods production sectors were relatively flat outside of Construction).

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The Establishment survey in May's Employment Report is clearly much stronger than had been expected, with +272k representing a beat of 92k on headline expectations of +160k (offset slightly by -15k 2-month revisions) and 69k in private payrolls (which came in at +229k, albeit offset by 20k lower revisions).

  • Gov't jobs rebounded from April's 7k (rev lower from 8k) but just to 43k (had averaged 67k in Q1), so as the arithmetic implies, the gains in the establishment survey were clearly private payroll-driven - which will be considered a more "solid" gain in terms of overall labor market dynamics.
  • Gains picked up most notably in "professional & business" activity (+33k vs -1k prior) and "food & drink@ (+25k vs 9k prior), with health/social assistance still solid at +84k (+101k prior). Construction jobs also picked up to +21k (0k prior).
  • April now looks clearly like a weak anomaly therefore, with services jobs performing solidly (private goods production sectors were relatively flat outside of Construction).