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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SLOVAKIA
Opinion polling ahead of the 30 September general election shows a close race between the pro-EU liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) and the populist Russophile Direction-Social Democracy (Smer) of former PM Robert Fico. The outcome of the election and the eventual composition of the Slovakian gov't will have a significant impact not only on policy-making in Bratislava, but the wider CEE region and even on the war in Ukraine.
- Fico's Smer now holds a consistent lead in opinion polling just a month ahead of the snap election, and looks on course to win most seats in the 150-member National Council. The PS has recorded a sustained increase in polling support over the course of 2023, and has now established itself in second place ahead of the centre-left Voice-Social Democracy (Hlas) of former PM Peter Pellegrini, which has seen a similarly sustained decline in support.
- Hlas stands to be the kingmaker post-election, either backing Fico in a populist left-leaning coalition or the PS' Michal Šimečka in a liberal pro-EU gov't.
- Should Fico return to power it could see the country take a sharp turn against the EU, NATO, and Ukraine. While Fico has stated he wants Slovakia to remain in both the EU and NATO, his openness to working with Republic have raised concerns in Brussels that a nation bordering Ukraine could act as a block on further support or sanctions.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, Projected Seats
Source: Focus, Polis Slovakia, AKO, SANEP, Ipsos, NMS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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