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Producer Cost Pressures Fade More Quickly Than Expected

US DATA
  • PPI inflation coming in softer than expected (ex food & energy 0.01 vs 0.3% exp., ex food, energy & trade 0.17 vs 0.3% exp.) is consistent with last week’s moderation in CPI core goods inflation.
  • The 0.01% M/M for PPI final demand ex food & energy was the softest since Nov’20
  • Similarly, CPI ex used cars & trucks for a broader estimate of goods pressures increased just 0.08% M/M (-0.38% with used vehicles included), the softest since Feb’21 and tallying well with the improvement in supply side pressures as indicated by the NY Fed’s GSCPI [see chart].
  • That adds to confidence that goods items are beginning to more heavily offset service strength in the CPI basket, although with services still having the much larger weight and therefore of particular concern for the FOMC.

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  • PPI inflation coming in softer than expected (ex food & energy 0.01 vs 0.3% exp., ex food, energy & trade 0.17 vs 0.3% exp.) is consistent with last week’s moderation in CPI core goods inflation.
  • The 0.01% M/M for PPI final demand ex food & energy was the softest since Nov’20
  • Similarly, CPI ex used cars & trucks for a broader estimate of goods pressures increased just 0.08% M/M (-0.38% with used vehicles included), the softest since Feb’21 and tallying well with the improvement in supply side pressures as indicated by the NY Fed’s GSCPI [see chart].
  • That adds to confidence that goods items are beginning to more heavily offset service strength in the CPI basket, although with services still having the much larger weight and therefore of particular concern for the FOMC.