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Prospera inflation expectations data due at 7:00BST / 8:00CET

SWEDEN
  • Danske: "The 5Y horizon is key for the Riksbank. Last month this one took a surprisingly large jump up to 2.5% from earlier 2.3%, probably starts to be at really uncomfortable levels for the Riksbank. However, lately we have seen a divergence between the mean and the median so despite a large rise in the mean figure, the median continues to be steady at 2% - explained by the large respond spread, with the lowest 5Y forecast at 1.5% and the highest 5Y forecast at 6%. Hence, it is also important to look at the median figure. A larger increase will of course add pressure on the Riksbank. Market is pricing a probability for an interim meeting hike, but we deem the probability for this low as there is only five weeks left until the ordinary September meeting."
  • Swedbank: "While not as important as the July CPI, [the Prospera survey] will be another puzzle piece ahead of the next monetary policy decision. The high June inflation already suggests higher expectations but has to be weighed against moderating global prices for freight, oil and non-energy-related commodities."
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