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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
The easing in the labour market will be good news for the RBNZ and it fits with its expectations. Wages though are looking stubborn. Private wages saw growth slowing but the public sector boosted overall wage costs and it is looking difficult to meet the RBNZ’s early 2024 forecast of 3.8% y/y. Revised projections will be available at the November 29 meeting.
- Q3 labour costs rose 1.1% q/q to be up 4.3% y/y, driven by the public sector. This was the third consecutive quarter at this annual rate signalling that it is yet to ease. This series has risen at least 1% each quarter since Q2 last year. The quarterly increases will need to slow substantially to meet the RBNZ’s Q1 2024 forecast of 3.8% y/y.
- Public sector wages rose 5.4% y/y up from 4.2% and the highest since Q4 1992 when the series began. Stats NZ notes that there were new collective agreements for nurses and teachers.
- Private sector wage growth is easing and rose less than 1% q/q in Q3. Stats NZ observes that the number receiving “some kind of pay increase in a year” has been falling in 2023 with the proportion in Q3 down 3pp to 61%. Private wage costs rose 4.1% y/y down from 4.3%.
NZ wage costs y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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