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Public sector pay negotiations in focus

UK
  • The government’s reaction to the independent pay review body’s recommendations on public sector wages will be in close focus this week.
  • The government is caught in two minds as to what to do here. The recommendations are for larger increases than last year, and the government is very concerned about stoking second round inflationary impacts.
  • But if smaller increases are offered then it is almost inevitable unions will call for more disruptive strikes.
  • The government will be weighing up the political costs of each scenario ahead of the next general election, likely in autumn 2024.
  • The outcome and narrative of the debate will be closely watched by markets – and if 6+% pay rises are agreed in the private sector, it will probably embolden private sector employees to ask for larger pay increases, too.
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