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Q1 GDP, Current Account Expected At 1330BST / 0830ET

CHILE
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  • The ongoing rally in copper to a record high continues to support the Chilean peso which gained by another 0.94% against the dollar on Friday. USDCLP closed at 889.45, bringing the pair close to support at 886.96, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 ‘23 - Feb 26 bull leg. BBVA note that copper has taken over as the leading driver and the recent peso rally likely triggered stops for many investors that had been using the CLP as a funding currency, setting it up for a new range.
  • Today, Q1 GDP data will be released at 1330BST(0830ET), with analysts expecting the economy to have grown by 2.0% q/q, following a 0.1% q/q gain in Q4. In annual terms, real GDP growth is expected to pick up to 2.5% y/y, from +0.4% previously. Q1 current account data will also cross, with consensus there for the deficit to narrow to $1.531bn, from $3.659bn in Q4.
    • Q1 GDP YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 0.4%
    • Q1 GDP QoQ est. 2%, prior 0.1%
    • Q1 Current Account Balance, est. -$1.53b, prior -$3.66b
  • Later this week, attention turns to the BCCh monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when the central bank is expected to slow the easing pace further, with a 50bp rate cut to 6.0%.
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  • The ongoing rally in copper to a record high continues to support the Chilean peso which gained by another 0.94% against the dollar on Friday. USDCLP closed at 889.45, bringing the pair close to support at 886.96, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 ‘23 - Feb 26 bull leg. BBVA note that copper has taken over as the leading driver and the recent peso rally likely triggered stops for many investors that had been using the CLP as a funding currency, setting it up for a new range.
  • Today, Q1 GDP data will be released at 1330BST(0830ET), with analysts expecting the economy to have grown by 2.0% q/q, following a 0.1% q/q gain in Q4. In annual terms, real GDP growth is expected to pick up to 2.5% y/y, from +0.4% previously. Q1 current account data will also cross, with consensus there for the deficit to narrow to $1.531bn, from $3.659bn in Q4.
    • Q1 GDP YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 0.4%
    • Q1 GDP QoQ est. 2%, prior 0.1%
    • Q1 Current Account Balance, est. -$1.53b, prior -$3.66b
  • Later this week, attention turns to the BCCh monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when the central bank is expected to slow the easing pace further, with a 50bp rate cut to 6.0%.