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Q1 GDP Forecasts Continue To Come Down

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow foreacst for Q1 2021 fell to 4.7% Q/Q SAAR in the latest set of revisions today, with the nowcast's model dragged down by weaker inventory figures out this morning (and offsetting stronger-than-expected private consumption).

  • This marks the first time that the Nowcast model has an estimate for the quarter that is below the Bloomberg economists' consensus (last 4.8%, just over half the 9.5% seen as of mid-Feb).
  • While of course it's the next few quarters that the market is counting on to deliver a significant rebound in activity, the short-term forecasts appear to have become a little over-exuberant.


Atlanta Fed, BBG, MNI

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