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Q1 GDP Growth Seen Accelerating

BRAZIL
  • GDP data crosses later today at 1300BST/0800ET, with markets expecting Q1 growth to have accelerated to 1.2% from 0.5% previously. The Y/Y figure is expected to tick higher to 2.1% from the 1.6% prior. That said, sell-side views are wide-ranging, with some confusion surrounding how the data will account for the delayed Carnaval holiday, which may effect the figure’s seasonality.
  • O Globo cites At Vibra in a piece flagging that Brazilian industry has begun stockpiling diesel stores in the face of risks of lack of supply in H2 this year. The matter has now become a concern for the government, which is now studying the creation of a crisis protocol for the supply of diesel across the country.
  • Late yesterday, the Senate approved a bill that returns tax credits to consumers via a subsidy on electricity bills, with Folha calculations pricing the measure at BRL60bln. The bill is now passed to federal deputies ahead of President Bolsonaro, and is unlikely to see further resistance.
  • Budget pinches are emerging elsewhere, with Valor writing that the government are facing difficulties in finding the funds to raise civil servant salaries in the budget, with the 5% pay rise proposal falling short of inflation.
  • Valor writes that the government are planning to sell 5 state-owned companies this year, with Eletrobras, Port of Santos, Ceasaminas, CBTU of Belo Horizonte and Recife all eyed for sale.
  • President Bolsonaro is due to meet with his chief of staff this morning ahead of an investment council meeting. He’s not scheduled to make any public appearances, however.
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