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Q1 GDP, March Economic Activity Due

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  • The peso outperformed yesterday, as markets reopened from the Ascension Day holiday, with the currency gaining by 1.1% against the dollar. USDCOP is now at its lowest since mid-April, with analysts noting that the strength came despite the possibility for further exercising of put options by the central bank. For now, COP remains anchored by high real yields, but BBVA see scope for faster rate cuts in H2 to potentially weigh on the currency.
  • Q1 GDP data will be published at 1700BST(1200ET), with the consensus for the economy to have grown by 2.2% q/q (sa), following no change in Q4. Annual GDP growth is expected to edge up to +0.8% y/y, from +0.3%. Activity surprised higher in January and February, but analysts expect some payback in March, with activity set to have fallen by 0.4% y/y at the end of the quarter, partly due to calendar effects.
    • Q1 GDP NSA YoY, est. 0.8%, prior 0.3%
    • Q1 GDP QoQ est. 2.2%, prior 0%
    • March Economic Activity NSA YoY, est. -0.4%, prior 2.5%
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  • The peso outperformed yesterday, as markets reopened from the Ascension Day holiday, with the currency gaining by 1.1% against the dollar. USDCOP is now at its lowest since mid-April, with analysts noting that the strength came despite the possibility for further exercising of put options by the central bank. For now, COP remains anchored by high real yields, but BBVA see scope for faster rate cuts in H2 to potentially weigh on the currency.
  • Q1 GDP data will be published at 1700BST(1200ET), with the consensus for the economy to have grown by 2.2% q/q (sa), following no change in Q4. Annual GDP growth is expected to edge up to +0.8% y/y, from +0.3%. Activity surprised higher in January and February, but analysts expect some payback in March, with activity set to have fallen by 0.4% y/y at the end of the quarter, partly due to calendar effects.
    • Q1 GDP NSA YoY, est. 0.8%, prior 0.3%
    • Q1 GDP QoQ est. 2.2%, prior 0%
    • March Economic Activity NSA YoY, est. -0.4%, prior 2.5%