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Q1 GDP Underwhelms But Led By Inventory Drag and Core PCE Jumps

US DATA
  • US GDP came in at 1.1% annualized in the Q1 advance, below consensus of 1.9% but exactly in line with the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow of 1.1%.
  • However, despite the recent downward revisions to retail sales that was unlikely fully captured by the Bloomberg consensus, personal consumption, whilst slightly below consensus, was stronger than GDPNow at 3.7% vs 2.7% tracking.
  • Inventories instead provided a heavy drag, flipping from +1.47pps to -2.26pps annualized contribution on the quarter.
  • The relative strength in consumption, bouncing back from 1.0% to 3.7% and with implications of stronger service strength not captured by retail sales, was further supported by surprisingly strong core PCE inflation at 4.9% (cons 4.7%) after 4.4% in Q4.

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