Free Trial

Q2 Goods Trade Surplus Narrows & Terms Of Trade Deteriorate

AUSTRALIA DATA

Australia’s June goods trade surplus widened due to a downward revision to May from weaker export growth. The Q2 merchandise trade surplus narrowed about $4bn from Q1 and with Q2 trade prices showing export prices sinking 5.9% q/q while import prices unexpectedly rose 1% q/q, there is a risk of a net export contraction in the national accounts. However, we don’t have services trade data yet.

Australia trade prices y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

  • The May merchandise trade surplus was revised down $0.7bn to $5.05bn and June came in at $5.59bn due to exports outpacing imports. The surplus has been trending lower for two years with the terms of trade also lower over that time.
  • Exports rose 1.7% m/m to be down 2.8% y/y up from -9.3% y/y with a strong rise in other mineral fuels and rural shipments. All key commodity groups saw stronger July exports.
  • Imports rose 0.5% m/m and 8.6% y/y up from 3% y/y in May. The monthly increase was driven by capital goods up 3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, which saw most categories rise on the month but there was also a 41.2% m/m rise in volatile aircraft. While consumer goods fell 1.3% m/m in June, due to auto imports, they have been strong rising 10.9% y/y.
Australia merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth moving average

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.