August 01, 2024 02:54 GMT
Q2 Goods Trade Surplus Narrows & Terms Of Trade Deteriorate
AUSTRALIA DATA
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Australia’s June goods trade surplus widened due to a downward revision to May from weaker export growth. The Q2 merchandise trade surplus narrowed about $4bn from Q1 and with Q2 trade prices showing export prices sinking 5.9% q/q while import prices unexpectedly rose 1% q/q, there is a risk of a net export contraction in the national accounts. However, we don’t have services trade data yet.
Australia trade prices y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- The May merchandise trade surplus was revised down $0.7bn to $5.05bn and June came in at $5.59bn due to exports outpacing imports. The surplus has been trending lower for two years with the terms of trade also lower over that time.
- Exports rose 1.7% m/m to be down 2.8% y/y up from -9.3% y/y with a strong rise in other mineral fuels and rural shipments. All key commodity groups saw stronger July exports.
- Imports rose 0.5% m/m and 8.6% y/y up from 3% y/y in May. The monthly increase was driven by capital goods up 3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, which saw most categories rise on the month but there was also a 41.2% m/m rise in volatile aircraft. While consumer goods fell 1.3% m/m in June, due to auto imports, they have been strong rising 10.9% y/y.
Australia merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth moving average
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
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