Q4 GDP Close To Estimates, Dec Activity Mixed, Little Sign Of Property Improvement

China Q4 GDP was a touch below estimates, rising 1.0% q/q (1.1% expected), while Q3 was revised up to +1.5% (from 1.3% initially reported). Y/Y growth was 5.2% versus 5.3% expected, but the y/y was in line with what Premier Li stated at Davos in Switzerland yesterday.

• Dec IP growth was slightly stronger than forecast at 6.8% in Dec (6.6% forecast). Higher mining and manufacturing activity offset weaker utilities. Continued strong growth was seen in motor vehicles (particularly NEV), mobile phones and parts of tech. Weakness was evident in crude steel and cement production.
• Retail sales came in below forecast up 7.4% y/y (8.0% forecast and 10.1% prior). Spending in relation to restaurants was strong +30% y/y, but consumer related goods spending eased to 4.8%y/y (from 8.0%). Spending on construction materials remained negative as it was for much of 2023.
• Fixed asset investment was 3.0% ytd y/y, a touch above expectations. FAI by the private sector remained negative (-0.4% ytd y/y), while the state-owned sector was positive (6.4% ytd y/y) but down from the earlier 2023 pace.
• There was little turn around in property related measures. Investment was -9.6% ytd y/y, while sales fell to -6.5% ytd y/y (-5.2% in Nov). New construction activity was down 20.4% ytd y/y, away from earlier 2023 troughs.
• The unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.1% (5.0% forecast and 5.0% prior). The Stats authorities also resumed publishing youth unemployment (14.9%).